As once high-flying stocks across a range of industries continue to 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ trade downward, what can we expect from the broader market in 2022 and beyond? In this 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ segment of Backstage Pass, recorded on Dec. 13, Fool contributors Toby Bordelon and Jason Hall discuss.
Toby Bordelon: I'm not sure I'm not concerned about future returns, generally speaking. We've heard this idea before, Jason, right? I feel like right after the bounce-back from the financial crisis, we were hearing, "The next decade, it'll be submarket returns."
But it hasn't been, right? I mean, look at the last decade. This seems to happen a lot, where people just start talking about "It's been too good for too long, [it's] going to be bad." I don't know. I think, though, like when you really look into it, my lack of concern, it really comes to the fact that I don't necessarily care what the market does, overall.
I'm not sure that many of us do. If you're invested in stocks, you care about those specific companies, not the market. It's your portfolio that matters, not an arbitrary index.
I know many of us are invested in index funds. If the market goes down, those funds are going to go down. But for me, I tend to mostly be invested in individual investments, not so much a lot of index investments. If you're in that same boat, I think you 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ keep an eye on the specific investments you have. I think you routinely assure yourself that, "Yeah I like these companies," or whatever the current market environment is, I think they're going to be fine for that. If it's not, you change.
That's what you're looking at. Do you still have confidence in your companies given the environment we're in? If so, cool. I think you do want to think about diversification. Think about real estate. If you're not invested in real estate -- and it doesn't have to be actual real estate, it could be through REITs. That gives you real estate exposure.
Think about diversification across different industries. Think about different geographies. Don't have 100% of your 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ assets be in U.S. companies that only do business in the United States . Look a little bit beyond that. Consider growth versus stable, mature dividend payers. Maybe have a little 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ bit of both. If you're concerned about a spike in interest rates, maybe you want to have some mature, stable companies that balance out those high growers that might be impacted 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ by that. If you are concerned about some crisis that might cause dividend payers to slash their dividends, make sure you're not entirely loaded up on those. If you think there'什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ s some new technology out there that's going to change things for the better, make sure you have some exposure to that.
Just keep that in mind. Just make sure your portfolio is set up to deal with a bunch of eventualities because you don't 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ know which one of them is going to hit. None of us knows the future. The only way you can guard against an issue like that is to make sure you got a bunch of different types of investments so you're set depending on what happens.
Jason Hall: Yeah. This is one that, I don't know, I guess the best way to put it is, to some extent, it has informed a little bit of the way my investing strategy has changed over the past probably two or three years. Certainly not a recent change at all. But most folks that have listened to me ramble on about this stuff in the past know that I've adopted a barbell strategy, where I basically 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ have two different ends of my portfolio -- and it's not 50-50, I want to 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ say that. So I call it a barbell, but it's not evenly weighted. On one end -- and this is the larger side -- is smaller, higher-growth companies. There's a lot of those high price-to-sales companies, a lot of them are not generating earnings. But for the most part, their cash flows are improving, and a lot of them are positive cash flow, but they're growing revenues at 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%-plus, very high revenue growth 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ companies, and they're smaller.
The other end of it, it's high-yield dividend growth companies. In 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ other words, companies that are already starting with an above-average dividend yield -- really 3% 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ or higher is my threshold -- and they're growing that payout 5%-plus every single year.
They have a business that's built with durable competitive advantages that increase their cash flows so they can continue to grow that dividend. That's a little bit of a 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ hedge against below-average market returns over the next 10 years because it lowers the threshold for the returns that those companies can generate and give me some level of predictability.
我们谈论的是 90% 甚至更高的比例，尽管我们对未来的 crypto 抱有如此高度的信念是件好事，而且集中押注是增加财富的好方法，但作为一个聪明的投资者，值得考虑在另一个熊市的情况下对冲波动性。任何经历过熊市的人都知道那种痛苦，你不想再经历一次。如果你之前没有经历过熊市，那么最好在变得盲目之前做好准备。
「最安全」的选择就是现金，从历史上看，将现金存入高收益储蓄账户会提供稳定的被动收入，但这种策略不再有效。储蓄账户的平均年收益率为 0.06%，更糟糕的是，自 2020 年以来，流通中的美元总量增加了 37%，这导致通货膨胀泡沫化，叙述已从「不会发生」到「暂时的」再到「比预期的要热」。
不可否认，通货膨胀正在升温。各国政府正在以前所未有的速度印制法币。今天的现金策略是在你的「oh-sh * t fund」中保留你需要的生活费用，也许还有几个月的流动现金。
一个升级选择就是债券市场（打字时我真的笑了），我不确定 30 岁以下的人是否会再投资这个市场，这是一个笑话。1 年期美国国债的 APR 为 0.1%，5 年期可能为 1.0%，10 年期为 1.5%，而 30 年期为 2.0%。而 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ 10 年期国债通胀保值证券 (TIPS) 的净值为-1%（是的，这是负的）。
另外，让我重复一遍：M2 货币供应量（现金和现金等价物）在不到两年的时间里增长了 37%。如果你的净资产在这段时间内没有增加同样的数额，你就输给了杰罗姆和印钞机。是的，这是一个过于简单化的观点，但它表明，你需要创造比 M2 货币供应量增长率更高的回报。因此，如果你像婴儿潮一代几十年来所做的那样，委托美国政府用 10 年期或 30 年期国债来保持和提高你的购买力，那你实际相当于损失了 23%，真倒霉。
下一个选择是混合和高收益证券，就像公司债券一样，但 2% 的平均收益率还不够。
美国股市有着长期的可持续和适度回报的历史，因此对于许多加密生态的土著来说，它可能是最自然的选择。问题是它并不真正适合杠铃策略（barbell strategy），你已经用 crypto 勾选了高风险选项，你想要一些风险较低且不相关的东西。
自从印钞机开始疯狂运转以来的过去一两年中，看看 GME、AMC、TSLA 发生了什么。基于基本面的沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffet）式投资策略仍能为你带来可观的回报，但它们相比 meme 和科技股而言会显得相形见绌。
股票市场已经变成了一个类似的赌场，只是要比加密市场的波动性要小一些。在这种冒险的环境中，相关性基本是相同的。如果市场出现重大调整（参见 COVID 崩盘），加密货币和股票可能会一起下跌。它们都是风险资产。如前所述，这确实不是你想要寻找的。
借用迈克尔·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 的话说，比特币就是数字房地产，它存在固定数量的 BTC（2100 万），这意味着地球上的每个人平均只能分配到 0.0025 BTC，任何个人或实体都无法创造更多的 BTC。我认为我们不需要更多地深入研究这个问题，但如果你有兴趣，我建议你阅读 David 的文章《比特币稀缺游戏》以了解为什么比特币稀缺游戏值得去玩，以及 ETH 和其他加密资产如何参与这个稀缺游戏。
而房地产的论点出奇地相似：地球上大约有 150 亿英亩的可居住土地，这相当于每人大约 2.3 英亩，然而，世界上有价值的房地产数量要少得多。与比特币不同的是，验证有价值房地产的确切数量有点困难。但正如一句古老的谚语所说，房地产的三大核心就是"位置，位置还是位置"。重要的是，就像奥地利定义的任何好的硬资产一样，没有人能在地球上再造出更多的土地。
在 2008 年金融危机之前，房地产在很大程度上被认为是最安全的投资之一——尤其是在美国。然而，金融危机改变了叙述，从那时起，人们对房地产投资持高度怀疑态度（可以说这是一个很好的理由）。但当你拉长时间线时，你会发现房地产一直有一个稳定、可靠的表现，几十年来一直很好地在抵御通胀。我认为这将在未来几十年保持不变，尽管你可能从 2008 年开始经历类似加密熊市的困难时期。
比如说，你为价值 50 万美元的房产支付了标准的 20% 首付，你需要支付 10 万美元以及一些零钱，以支付交易费用、搬家费用、家具等，另一方面，你以历史上最低的利率从银行那获得了 40 万美元的法定贷款。作为回报，你以 10 万美元的现金持有了价值 50 万美元的资产，这相当于 5 倍杠杆，而美国平均房产年回报率为 3.5-4%，这意味着在你购买 50 万美元房产的一年内，它可以为你带来 17000-20000 美元的收入。
这是 10 万美元投资减去支付的利息后 17.5%-20% 的年化回报率，而不是广告宣传的无聊的 3.5%-5%，更进一步，如果你是首次购房者，你可以支付低至 3% 的首付。
加利福尼亚州圣何塞的房产去年增值了 10%，爱达荷州博伊西上涨 9.1%，华盛顿州西雅图上涨 9.7%。由于向远程工作的转变，人们可以住在任何地方，因此较小的度假目的地，如海滩和山城，这些地方的增值幅度远远超过这一数字。既然你可以在海滩边呆一整年，为什么还要住在拥挤的城市呢？
如果你在上述的任何一个地点投资，你在过去两年的回报都是疯狂的。我们谈论的是超过 50% 的年化回报率，这使任何美国国债、标准普尔 500 指数都相形见绌，并且在某种程度上与加密货币一致（特别是对于杠铃另一侧的资产）。
Barbell Rehab Workshop Online Course
Do you come across clients who experience pain during the 4 major barbell lifts (bench press, squats, deadlifts, overhead press) and as their personal trainer, you are determined to help them but not sure how? Have you been looking online and on youtube for solutions to pain symptoms but get confused 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ as to which approach is safe for personal trainers to follow? Do you know when to seek help from medical professionals, and under which circumstances you can safely work with your clients in a gym setting? This is a course for fitness professionals whose objectives are to 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ dive deeper into why their clients experience pain during barbell lifts and adopt strategies that will get their clients out of pain, and stay in action as you work with them on strength development.
Course Highlights 课程亮点
• The Rehab Process Overview
• Pain Symptoms in relation to movement faults and compensation
• Corrective Exercises – Programming and Cueing Methodologies
• Short Videos that are easy to understand
• Chinese Subtitles Available in Simplified Chinese
Course Objectives 课程目的
• Learn the principles of load management, pain science rehab and performance programming
• Dig Deep into optimizing squat form, variation selection, and what 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ to do when pain arises. Find out why everyone squats differently.
• Learn now to modify bench press to reduce shoulder pain and increase performance
• Deadlifts – learn how to optimize form and modify it based on anatomy, personal preference, and injury history
• Learn how to optimize overhead lifting and how personal trainers can use it to promote shoulder health.
This is 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ a continuing education course for existing fitness professionals who has gained front line experience in personal 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ training, knowledge of exercise science, understand client assessment and programming.
Course Facilitator 课程讲师
Dr Michael Mash
PT, DPT, CSCS, SFMA, FMS, Cert. TTM, Founder of Barbell Rehab
Course Provider 课程提供单位
Fitness Academy Asia (FAA)
Continuing 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ Education Points 继续教育学分
Category C NSCA – 0.8 CEU(s)
Course Duration 课程时长
6 Hours – Study 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ At Your Own Pace
Online Examination – Multiple Choice – Passing Score 70%
Learning Materials 学习材料
Electronic Course Manual
Online Lectures - Pre-Recorded
Upon the passing of the online exam, you will be awarded a “Continuing Education Certification of Completion” by Barbell Rehab.
Grading Criteria 通过标准
Online Exam Passing Score of 70%
Exam Fee 考试费用
What Do I Need to Bring? 我需要准备什么？
Mobile/Desktop/Tablet – Can be used on any device
Pen and Notepad for notes
English with Simplified Chinese Subtitle Options
Information displayed above is correct during time of publishing and may subject to change without prior notice
Module 1: Principles of Training and Rehab
In this module, we discuss the principles of load management, pain science, rehab 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ and performance programming, and how to optimize mindset on returning to baseline after an injury.
Module 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ 2: Training and Modifying the Squat
Here we dig deep into optimizing squat form, variation selection, and what to do when pain arises. Everyone squats differently. Here's where you learn why.什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？
Module 3: Optimize the Bench Press for Health and Performance
Many people complain of shoulder pain during the bench press. Here, we talk about how to optimize and modify this lift to reduce shoulder pain and increase performance.
Module 4: Deadlift Form, Variations, and Common Issues
Many people avoid the 什麼是槓鈴策略(Barbell strategy)？ deadlift because of back pain. In this module, you'll learn how to optimize form and modify it based on anatomy, personal preference, and injury history.
Module 5: Overhead Lifting and Shoulder Health
Many people avoid pressing overhead in fear that it will cause shoulder pain or due to current discomfort. Here we talk about how to optimize overhead lifting and how we use it to promote shoulder health.
Douglas J. Peebles 聯博固定收益投資長
如同先前聯博文章(債券投資：信用與利率因子同等重要)所提到，投資人可以將成長型的信用資產與高利率敏感度資產 (如政府公債) 融入投資組合中，交由經理人隨著大環境變化調整兩者間的配置比重，藉此將投資風險極小化，並獲取相對較高水準的收益。